Accuracy record
Every prediction is logged before kick-off and scored once the result is in. Nothing is edited afterwards.
2,650
Matches scored
50.8%
Result called correctly
0.207
Average RPS (lower is better)
0.205 vs 0.205
Avg RPS: model vs bookmakers (2,282 matches, lower is better)
Does confidence mean anything?
Matches grouped by how strongly the model favoured its top pick. If the model is well calibrated, the hit rate should track the stated confidence.
| Top-pick probability | Matches | Avg stated | Actually right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-40% | 561 | 38% | 35% |
| 40-50% | 1,056 | 45% | 47% |
| 50-60% | 554 | 54% | 54% |
| 60-70% | 275 | 64% | 65% |
| 70%+ | 204 | 78% | 81% |
By league
| League | Matches | Correct | Avg RPS | Bookmaker RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League England | 186 | 54.8% | 0.224 | 0.217 |
| National League North England | 184 | 47.3% | 0.226 | - |
| National League South England | 184 | 48.9% | 0.213 | - |
| Championship England | 180 | 47.2% | 0.216 | 0.217 |
| League Two England | 164 | 42.7% | 0.212 | 0.215 |
| League One England | 158 | 45.6% | 0.209 | 0.207 |
| La Liga 2 Spain | 140 | 48.6% | 0.226 | 0.214 |
| La Liga Spain | 119 | 54.6% | 0.178 | 0.181 |
| Serie A Italy | 110 | 59.1% | 0.187 | 0.188 |
| Serie B Italy | 110 | 40.9% | 0.214 | 0.216 |
| Eredivisie Netherlands | 108 | 51.9% | 0.194 | 0.200 |
| Ligue 2 France | 108 | 44.4% | 0.220 | 0.216 |
| Premier League England | 100 | 51.0% | 0.202 | 0.206 |
| Belgian Pro League Belgium | 99 | 64.6% | 0.185 | 0.191 |
| Super Lig Turkey | 99 | 57.6% | 0.203 | 0.204 |
| Primeira Liga Portugal | 98 | 55.1% | 0.190 | 0.194 |
| Ligue 1 France | 90 | 52.2% | 0.202 | 0.199 |
| Bundesliga Germany | 81 | 58.0% | 0.204 | 0.203 |
| Bundesliga Austria | 72 | 58.3% | 0.181 | 0.177 |
| Super League Greece | 69 | 62.3% | 0.166 | 0.169 |
| 2. Bundesliga Germany | 65 | 41.5% | 0.222 | 0.219 |
| Premiership Scotland | 63 | 44.4% | 0.223 | 0.218 |
| Championship Scotland | 63 | 50.8% | 0.216 | 0.211 |
RPS (Ranked Probability Score) rewards getting the whole probability spread right, not just the winner: 0 is perfect, about 0.67 is a no-idea guess. Bookmaker RPS uses closing odds with the margin removed, over the same matches, where those odds are available.